Day over day

What moved

Our last reading of Oct 20 (Oct 20, 11:13 PM EDT) compared with our latest (Oct 21, 2:22 AM EDT). A market move counts at 3 points or more; a polling-average move at 1 point or more.

Betting markets

1. Ohio’s 10th DistrictKristina Knickerbocker: 23% to 35% (Polymarket)up 12 points
2. New Jersey’s 2nd DistrictZack Mullock: 20% to 27% (Polymarket)up 8 points
3. Florida’s 4th DistrictLaShonda Holloway: 15% to 22% (Polymarket)up 7 points
4. Florida’s 21st DistrictJames Martin: 11% to 14% (Polymarket)up 4 points
5. North Carolina’s 7th DistrictKimberly Hardy: 16% to 20% (Polymarket)up 4 points
6. South Carolina’s 2nd DistrictZyon Khalifa: 14% to 17% (Polymarket)up 3 points
7. Virginia’s 1st DistrictShannon Taylor: 60% to 63% (Kalshi and Polymarket)up 3 points
8. Alaska At-Large DistrictBill Hill: 14% to 17% (Kalshi and Polymarket)up 3 points

Forecaster ratings

No forecaster changed a rating.

Polling averages

No polling average moved 1 point or more.

Prices are betting-market chances, not forecasts. Every move links to its race page with sources. See also the running log of changes.