ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Majority 51 · 53 R · 45 D · 2 I going in

SENATE

Your scenario · not a forecast

Path to 51

Drawing the map…

Tap a toss-up to cycle open, Democratic, Republican. On a phone, Open race is on the card. On a larger screen, a locked seat opens its page.

0–0

5 open seats

49 D
46 R
49 D5 toss-up46 R

5 open. Majority is 51. Total seats in this scenario: 100.

How this count is built

Starting point is the Wikipedia composition, 53 Republican and 47 in the Democratic caucus (45 Democrats and 2 independents). Seats on the ballot are removed from the incumbent party and put back at the consensus, except toss-ups, which you set. Oklahoma has no incumbent party in the table, so that seat stays inside the starting total and is not reassigned.

Locked seats stay on their published rating. Method.

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