Desk notes · not a data field

Analysis

These sentences only restate ratings, polling averages, and prices already in the snapshot. They are written copy. They are not a forecast and they are not a new source.

Since the previous pull

400 logged differences against the previous snapshot: 400 market lines and 0 polling averages. The sentences below restate those stored before-and-after figures.

Wyoming at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Wisconsin 7: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Washington 5: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Washington 3: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Virginia 7: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Texas 32: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Texas 5: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Tennessee 5: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

The races with a full card

71 Senate and governor races carry a consensus plus a poll average, a market, or both.

senate

Alabama Senate

Tommy Tuberville (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Barry Moore 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Barry Moore 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+25.5.

senate

Alaska Senate

Dan S. Sullivan (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Mary Peltola +2.6. Kalshi Democratic party 75¢ (mid). Polymarket Mary Peltola 74¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 45.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+10.1. PELTOLA, MARY leads the stored FEC receipts at $32,623,722.

senate

Arkansas Senate

Tom Cotton (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Tom Cotton 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Tom Cotton 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+27.6.

senate

Colorado Senate

John Hickenlooper (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi John Hickenlooper 99¢ (mid). Polymarket John Hickenlooper 99¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+11.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+13.5.

senate

Delaware Senate

Chris Coons (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Chris Coons 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Democrat 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+19.0.

senate · special

Florida Senate special

Ashley Moody (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Ashley Moody +6.5. Kalshi Ashley Moody 91¢ (mid). Polymarket Ashley Moody 91¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 74.5 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4. VINDMAN, ALEXANDER leads the stored FEC receipts at $20,487,916.

senate

Georgia Senate

Jon Ossoff (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Jon Ossoff +8.5. Kalshi Jon Ossoff 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Jon Ossoff 96¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 83.6 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+2.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.2. OSSOFF, T. JONATHAN leads the stored FEC receipts at $131,133,034.

senate

Idaho Senate

Jim Risch (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Jim Risch 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Jim Risch 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+36.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+30.8.

senate

Illinois Senate

Dick Durbin (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Juliana Stratton 99¢ (mid). Polymarket Juliana Stratton 99¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+10.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+17.0.

senate

Iowa Senate

Joni Ernst (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Josh Turek +1.0. Kalshi Ashley Hinson 57¢ (mid). Polymarket Ashley Hinson 59¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 17.0 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.2. TUREK, JOSHUA leads the stored FEC receipts at $20,152,882.

senate

Kansas Senate

Roger Marshall (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Adam Hamilton +0.6. Kalshi Roger Marshall 64¢ (mid). Polymarket Roger Marshall 63¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 25.6 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+16.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+14.6. HAMILTON, ADAM leads the stored FEC receipts at $13,533,711.

senate

Kentucky Senate

Mitch McConnell (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Andy Barr 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Andy Barr 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+25.9.

senate

Louisiana Senate

Bill Cassidy (R) is the incumbent, lost renomination. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Julia Letlow 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Julia Letlow 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+22.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+18.6.

senate

Maine Senate

Susan Collins (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Troy Jackson +2.2. Kalshi Troy Jackson 62¢ (mid). Polymarket Troy Jackson 63¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 22.8 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+9.1. COLLINS, SUSAN M. leads the stored FEC receipts at $24,131,410.

senate

Massachusetts Senate

Ed Markey (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Ed Markey 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Ed Markey 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+25.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+33.5.

senate

Michigan Senate

Gary Peters (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Abdul El-Sayed +3.1. Kalshi Abdul El-Sayed 69¢ (mid). Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed 70¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 35.9 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. EL-SAYED, ABDUL leads the stored FEC receipts at $45,175,567.

senate

Minnesota Senate

Tina Smith (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Peggy Flanagan +3.3. Kalshi Peggy Flanagan 87¢ (mid). Polymarket Peggy Flanagan 87¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 69.7 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+4.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.1. CRAIG, ANGIE leads the stored FEC receipts at $13,380,880.

senate

Mississippi Senate

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Cindy Hyde-Smith 89¢ (mid). Polymarket Cindy Hyde-Smith 88¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+22.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+16.5.

senate

Montana Senate

Steve Daines (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kurt Alme 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Kurt Alme 92¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+19.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+16.4.

senate

Nebraska Senate

Pete Ricketts (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Pete Ricketts +1.1. Kalshi Pete Ricketts 74¢ (mid). Polymarket Pete Ricketts 72¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+20.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+19.1. RICKETTS, PETE leads the stored FEC receipts at $13,405,556.

senate

New Hampshire Senate

Jeanne Shaheen (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Chris Pappas +6.7. Kalshi Chris Pappas 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Chris Pappas 89¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 70.3 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.3. PAPPAS, CHRIS leads the stored FEC receipts at $21,500,073.

senate

New Jersey Senate

Cory Booker (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Cory Booker 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Cory Booker 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+5.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+15.9.

senate

New Mexico Senate

Ben Ray Luján (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Ben Ray Luján 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Ben Ray Luján 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.8.

senate

North Carolina Senate

Thom Tillis (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Roy Cooper +9.7. Kalshi Roy Cooper 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Roy Cooper 96¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 82.8 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+3.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+1.3. COOPER, ROY leads the stored FEC receipts at $47,190,466.

senate · special

Ohio Senate special

Jon Husted (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Sherrod Brown +3.1. Kalshi Sherrod Brown 65¢ (mid). Polymarket Sherrod Brown 64¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 23.9 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+11.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.0. BROWN, SHERROD leads the stored FEC receipts at $61,686,820.

senate

Oklahoma Senate

Alan Armstrong is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kevin Hern 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Kevin Hern 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+34.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+33.1.

senate

Oregon Senate

Jeff Merkley (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Jeff Merkley 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Jeff Merkley 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+16.1.

senate

Rhode Island Senate

Jack Reed (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Jack Reed 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Jack Reed 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+13.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+20.8.

senate

South Carolina Senate

Darline Graham (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Darline Graham +1.8. Kalshi Darline Graham 84¢ (mid). Polymarket Darline Graham Nordone 83¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 63.7 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+17.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+11.7. GRAHAM, LINDSEY O. leads the stored FEC receipts at $21,650,508.

senate

South Dakota Senate

Mike Rounds (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Mike Rounds 92¢ (mid). Polymarket Mike Rounds 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+26.2.

senate

Tennessee Senate

Bill Hagerty (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Bill Hagerty 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Bill Hagerty 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+23.2.

senate

Texas Senate

John Cornyn (R) is the incumbent, lost renomination. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by James Talarico +2.6. Kalshi James Talarico 62¢ (mid). Polymarket James Talarico 62¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 19.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+5.6. TALARICO, JAMES leads the stored FEC receipts at $128,772,835.

senate

Virginia Senate

Mark Warner (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Mark Warner 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Mark Warner 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+5.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.1.

senate

West Virginia Senate

Shelley Moore Capito (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Shelley Moore Capito 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Shelley Moore Capito 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+41.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+38.9.

senate

Wyoming Senate

Cynthia Lummis (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Harriet Hageman 99¢ (mid). Polymarket Harriet Hageman 99¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+45.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+43.4.

governor

Alabama Governor

Kay Ivey (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Tommy Tuberville 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Tommy Tuberville 94¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+25.5.

governor

Alaska Governor

Mike Dunleavy (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins +20.8. Kalshi Democratic party 80¢ (mid). Polymarket Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 79¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 36.3 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+10.1. Candidate contracts on KXGOVAK-26 are a fragmented field, mostly under 1¢. The party contract is the priced market.

governor

Arizona Governor

Katie Hobbs (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Katie Hobbs +8.0. Kalshi Katie Hobbs 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Katie Hobbs 93¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 77.0 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+5.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.3.

governor

Arkansas Governor

Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+27.6.

governor

California Governor

Gavin Newsom (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Xavier Becerra 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Xavier Becerra 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.

governor

Colorado Governor

Jared Polis (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Phil Weiser 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Phil Weiser 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+11.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+13.5.

governor

Connecticut Governor

Ned Lamont (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Ned Lamont 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Ned Lamont 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1.

governor

Florida Governor

Ron DeSantis (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Byron Donalds +4.5. Kalshi Byron Donalds 80¢ (mid). Polymarket Byron Donalds 81¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 56.5 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4.

governor

Georgia Governor

Brian Kemp (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Rick Jackson +1.7. Kalshi Rick Jackson 52¢ (mid). Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms 52¢ (mid). Kalshi favors Rick Jackson at 52¢. Polymarket favors Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 52¢. The poll’s Democratic edge is 5.2 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+2.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.2.

governor

Hawaii Governor

Josh Green (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Josh Green 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Josh Green 99¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+23.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.5.

governor

Idaho Governor

Brad Little (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Brad Little 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Brad Little 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+36.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+30.8.

governor

Illinois Governor

JB Pritzker (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi JB Pritzker 96¢ (mid). Polymarket JB Pritzker 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+10.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+17.0.

governor

Iowa Governor

Kim Reynolds (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Rob Sand +8.0. Kalshi Rob Sand 87¢ (mid). Polymarket Rob Sand 88¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 67.0 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.2.

governor

Kansas Governor

Laura Kelly (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Ty Masterson +5.3. Kalshi Ty Masterson 76¢ (mid). Polymarket Ty Masterson 76¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 47.2 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+16.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+14.6. Ticker year is 27. Rules say the 2026 election.

governor

Maine Governor

Janet Mills (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Hannah Pingree 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Hannah Pingree 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+9.1.

governor

Maryland Governor

Wes Moore (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Wes Moore 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Wes Moore 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+28.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+33.2.

governor

Massachusetts Governor

Maura Healey (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Maura Healey 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Maura Healey 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+25.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+33.5.

governor

Michigan Governor

Gretchen Whitmer (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Jocelyn Benson +7.7. Kalshi Jocelyn Benson 92¢ (mid). Polymarket Jocelyn Benson 93¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 78.0 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8.

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Minnesota Governor

Tim Walz (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Amy Klobuchar 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Amy Klobuchar 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+4.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.1.

governor

Nebraska Governor

Jim Pillen (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Jim Pillen 89¢ (mid). Polymarket Jim Pillen 90¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+20.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+19.1.

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Nevada Governor

Joe Lombardo (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Joe Lombardo +1.1. Kalshi Aaron Ford 56¢ (mid). Polymarket Aaron Ford 59¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 18.1 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+3.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.4.

governor

New Hampshire Governor

Kelly Ayotte (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Kelly Ayotte +10.5. Kalshi Kelly Ayotte 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Kelly Ayotte 94¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 78.1 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.3. Ticker year is 28. Rules say the 2026 election.

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New Mexico Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Deb Haaland +7.9. Kalshi Deb Haaland 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Deb Haaland 94¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 80.7 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.8.

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New York Governor

Kathy Hochul (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kathy Hochul 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Kathy Hochul 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+12.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+23.1.

governor

Ohio Governor

Mike DeWine (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Amy Acton +4.6. Kalshi Amy Acton 71¢ (mid). Polymarket Amy Acton 73¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 40.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+11.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.0.

governor

Oklahoma Governor

Kevin Stitt (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Mike Mazzei 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Mike Mazzei 89¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+34.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+33.1.

governor

Oregon Governor

Tina Kotek (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Tina Kotek +2.0. Kalshi Tina Kotek 81¢ (mid). Polymarket Tina Kotek 83¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 63.5 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+16.1.

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Pennsylvania Governor

Josh Shapiro (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Josh Shapiro 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Josh Shapiro 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+1.2.

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Rhode Island Governor

Dan McKee (D) is the incumbent, lost renomination. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Helena Foulkes 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Helena Foulkes 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+13.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+20.8.

governor

South Carolina Governor

Henry McMaster (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Alan Wilson +8.7. Kalshi Alan Wilson 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Alan Wilson 94¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 78.6 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+17.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+11.7.

governor

South Dakota Governor

Larry Rhoden (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Larry Rhoden 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Larry Rhoden 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+26.2.

governor

Tennessee Governor

Bill Lee (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Marsha Blackburn 92¢ (mid). Polymarket Marsha Blackburn 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+23.2.

governor

Texas Governor

Greg Abbott (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Greg Abbott +2.1. Kalshi Greg Abbott 78¢ (mid). Polymarket Greg Abbott 76¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 49.7 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+5.6.

governor

Vermont Governor

Phil Scott (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Phil Scott +5.6. Kalshi Phil Scott 77¢ (mid). Polymarket Phil Scott 76¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 45.4 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+31.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+35.4.

governor

Wisconsin Governor

Tony Evers (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by David Crowley +3.6. Kalshi David Crowley 80¢ (mid). Polymarket David Crowley 81¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 56.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+0.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.6.

governor

Wyoming Governor

Mark Gordon (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Eric Barlow 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Eric Barlow 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+45.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+43.4.