ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

DISAGREEMENT

White circle is the poll. Gold diamond is the price. The gold bar is the gap.

  1. Georgia SenateD+8.5 poll · D+92.1 priceRD83.6
  2. North Carolina SenateD+9.7 poll · D+92.5 priceRD82.8
  3. New Mexico GovernorD+7.9 poll · D+88.6 priceRD80.7
  4. South Carolina GovernorR+8.7 poll · R+87.3 priceRD78.6
  5. New Hampshire GovernorR+10.5 poll · R+88.6 priceRD78.1
  6. Michigan GovernorD+7.7 poll · D+85.7 priceRD78
  7. Arizona GovernorD+8.0 poll · D+85.0 priceRD77
  8. Florida Senate specialR+6.5 poll · R+81.0 priceRD74.5
  9. New Hampshire SenateD+6.7 poll · D+77.0 priceRD70.3
  10. Minnesota SenateD+3.3 poll · D+73.0 priceRD69.7
  11. Iowa GovernorD+8.0 poll · D+75.0 priceRD67
  12. South Carolina SenateR+1.8 poll · R+65.5 priceRD63.7
  13. Oregon GovernorD+2.0 poll · D+65.5 priceRD63.5
  14. Florida GovernorR+4.5 poll · R+61.0 priceRD56.5
  15. Wisconsin GovernorD+3.6 poll · D+60.0 priceRD56.4
  16. Texas GovernorR+2.1 poll · R+51.8 priceRD49.7
  17. Kansas GovernorR+5.3 poll · R+52.5 priceRD47.2
  18. Alaska SenateD+2.6 poll · D+48.0 priceRD45.4
  19. Vermont GovernorR+5.6 poll · R+51.0 priceRD45.4
  20. Ohio GovernorD+4.6 poll · D+45.0 priceRD40.4
  21. Alaska GovernorD+20.8 poll · D+57.1 priceRD36.3
  22. Michigan SenateD+3.1 poll · D+39.0 priceRD35.9
How this is calculated

This is arithmetic on the figures already quoted for the race. It is not a forecast. A lens is Democratic, Republican, or toss-up. A market is a toss-up when the two party prices are within 5 cents. A poll is a toss-up when the margin is under 2 points. A split is scored when the ratings and the market pick opposite parties (50), when the polling average and the market pick opposite parties (50), or when Kalshi and Polymarket pick different parties (25). A party word and a candidate name count as the same side when the race table ties that name to that party. A confidence gap is a separate list: both lenses pick the same party, and the Democratic edge in the polling average differs from the Democratic edge in the price by 20 points or more. That gap means the market is more lopsided than the poll. It does not mean they pick different winners.

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