Transparency
Corrections
Every factual fix to our race data, newest first. Routine updates (new polls, new ratings, price moves) are on What changed. Spot an error? Write to the address on the About page.
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Day by day tables
Was: The daily rating column used its own formula, so it could disagree with the rating at the top of the page; one market column showed a longer name than the candidate uses.
Now: The column uses the page's own rating label (races with no forecaster consensus say so), and market names match the head-to-head.
Source: Site review
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
House race pages
Was: Some House races with market prices had no head-to-head, so the betting favorite was missing from the matchup.
Now: Every priced House race shows its nominees, built from the same nominee list as the open seats. Alaska at-large and California 6th were added from their nominee lists.
Source: Ballotpedia; Wikipedia; Kalshi; Polymarket
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Senate, House and governor lists
Was: Open seats were listed under the departing member's name.
Now: Open seats read "Open" with the nominees, or say the member isn't running.
Source: Ballotpedia
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Polling averages
Was: Averages were labelled vaguely, and an average that mixed in polls over 45 days old wasn't flagged.
Now: Each reads "Our average of the latest polls, through" its last poll date, and any average that includes a poll over 45 days old is labelled.
Source: Wikipedia poll tables
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Price charts
Was: Poll and rating dates were read in the wrong time zone (some showed a day early) and labels used trading jargon.
Now: Dates are read as US Eastern and shown as dates only, in plain words.
Source: Site review
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Candidate photo credits
Was: Photos with no named author were credited inconsistently; one photo's free license couldn't be confirmed; Bernadette Wilson had no photo.
Now: Credited "Author unknown, via Wikimedia Commons"; the unconfirmed photo is replaced by a silhouette; a CC BY-SA 4.0 photo of Wilson was added.
Source: Wikimedia Commons
Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Montana and other no-poll races
Was: Two notes about missing polls said the same thing in different words, and the method text was unclear.
Now: One plain note, and the method reads "Average of N published polling averages, weighted equally."
Source: Site review
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Delaware Senate
Was: The photo shown for Republican Michael Katz was of a different man with the same name (an Israeli chef).
Now: Photo removed; a plain silhouette is shown until a verified free photo exists.
Source: Wikimedia Commons file description; Wikipedia
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Montana Senate
Was: The matchup left out independent Seth Bodnar, the main challenger, and showed Polymarket's "Independent" price without his name.
Now: Kurt Alme (Republican), Seth Bodnar (independent), Alani Bankhead (Democrat) and Kyle Austin (Libertarian) are all listed; Bodnar is in the picks map too.
Source: Ballotpedia; Montana Public Radio; Flathead Beacon
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Ohio governor: Marist poll
Was: The likely-voter and registered-voter rows of the Oct 15-18 Marist poll were swapped (the error came from the source table).
Now: Likely voters: Acton 50, Ramaswamy 43. Registered voters: Acton 51, Ramaswamy 43.
Source: Marist Poll release
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
South Carolina 2nd District
Was: Polymarket placeholder contracts ("Other", "A", "B") were shown as if they were candidates, and the Democratic nominee wasn't named.
Now: Placeholders removed everywhere; Democrat Zyon Khalifa is listed against Rep. Joe Wilson.
Source: Ballotpedia; Polymarket
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Texas 9th, 23rd and 32nd Districts
Was: Placeholder words for an empty seat were shown where a candidate's name belonged.
Now: Shown as open seats, with the actual nominees.
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball; Ballotpedia
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
35 open House seats
Was: The head-to-head showed the departing member (for example David Schweikert in Arizona's 1st) instead of the candidates on the ballot.
Now: Each open seat shows its general-election nominees; the departing member appears only as who holds the seat now.
Source: Ballotpedia district pages
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Florida 22nd and Texas 35th Districts
Was: Rep. Lois Frankel and Rep. Greg Casar were featured, though both are running in other districts (our Oct 20 fix went the wrong way).
Now: Each shows its nominees: Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar (FL-22), Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz (TX-35).
Source: Ballotpedia
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Disagreement page and race summaries
Was: A poll lead (share of the vote) was compared with a market price (chance of winning) as if they were the same scale, so safe races looked like big disagreements.
Now: Only real splits are listed: sources that favor different winners. The sizes are never compared.
Source: Method review
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Florida special and Minnesota Senate fundraising
Was: Primary losers (Alexander Vindman, Angie Craig) were shown as the top fundraisers.
Now: Only November nominees are listed; names are shown as candidates use them, not in FEC capitals; Alaska's duplicate Sullivan row merged.
Source: FEC; Ballotpedia
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Senate fundraising totals
Was: Incumbents' six-year totals sat beside challengers' with no date range.
Now: Each Senate money panel states the window (the full six-year cycle since Jan 2021).
Source: FEC
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
House district pages
Was: A statewide presidential margin read as if it were the district's.
Now: Labelled "statewide (not this district)".
Source: Method review
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Vermont and South Carolina governor polling averages
Was: Vermont counted two versions of one Braun Research poll; South Carolina's average used only July-August polls without saying so.
Now: Each poll counts once (likely-voter version first); averages from polls over 45 days old are labelled as dated.
Source: Wikipedia poll tables
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Rhode Island governor
Was: Independent Ken Block was left out of the candidate list.
Now: Listed alongside Helena Foulkes and Aaron Guckian.
Source: Ballotpedia; Kalshi
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
What changed and Analysis pages
Was: Listed price "moves" that didn't move, ahead of real changes.
Now: Only moves of a point or more and real poll or rating changes are listed, biggest first.
Source: Site review
Oct 21, 2026 (overnight)
Wording and dates site-wide
Was: Robotic notes ("cells", "ingested", "(mid)"), prices described in money terms, a misspelled month, mixed date styles, first-name-only market labels, Wikipedia disambiguators in names, and "TBA" sample sizes.
Now: Plain English, percent and points, one date style, last names, and "Likely voters" where no sample size is published.
Source: Site review
Oct 20, 2026, 10:57 PM ET
41 Senate and governor races
Was: No general-election candidates were listed, because the source table had none.
Now: Each race shows its nominees.
Source: Each race's Ballotpedia page, checked Oct 20, 2026
Oct 20, 2026, 10:57 PM ET
Candidate names
Was: Formal or middle-initial names: Dan S. Sullivan, Edward J. Markey, Joshua Green, Larry E. Marker, James W. Byrd, Robert B. Charles.
Now: The names they campaign under: Dan Sullivan, Ed Markey, Josh Green, Larry Marker, James Byrd, Bobby Charles. Poll rows keep the pollster's own wording.
Source: Candidate campaign sites and Ballotpedia
Oct 20, 2026, 10:40 PM ET
Florida 22nd District
Was: Listed as a "new seat" with no incumbent.
Now: Superseded on Oct 21: we first named Rep. Lois Frankel here, but she is running in the 23rd District. The page now shows this district's nominees (see the Oct 21 entry).
Source: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report
Oct 20, 2026, 10:40 PM ET
Texas 35th District
Was: Listed as a "new seat" with no incumbent.
Now: Superseded on Oct 21: we first named Rep. Greg Casar here, but he is running in the 37th District. The page now shows this district's nominees (see the Oct 21 entry).
Source: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report
Oct 20, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Oklahoma Senate
Was: Sen. Alan Armstrong's party and status were missing.
Now: Republican, appointed in March 2026, not running.
Source: AP; Congressional Record
Oct 20, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
New Hampshire Senate
Was: Candidate and poll labels had no party, so poll leads could not be tied to a party.
Now: Each candidate carries a party.
Source: Race table on Wikipedia
Oct 20, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
California 6th District
Was: Rep. Kevin Kiley was listed as a Republican, and Polymarket's party-only market made him look like a 1% long shot.
Now: Kiley is listed as an independent (he left the Republican Party). The Polymarket row is hidden because it doesn't price him.
Source: Sacramento Bee; The Hill
Oct 20, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
South Carolina Senate
Was: An out-of-date FEC fundraising row for Lindsey Graham's committee appeared under money raised.
Now: That row is hidden.
Source: FEC filings