ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Nevada Governor

Joe Lombardo (R) · running · Cook PVI R+1 · last result 48.81% R

Toss-upShare card
Joe Lombardo
CC BY-SA 3.0 · Gage Skidmore
R

Joe Lombardo

42¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Joseph Michael Lombardo is an American politician and former law enforcement officer serving since 2023 as the 31st governor of Nevada. From 2015 to 2023, he was the 17th sheriff of Clark County, capping a 34-year career in law enforcement.

Source: Joe Lombardo
VS
Aaron Ford
Public domain · United States Mission to Geneva, United States Department of State
D

Aaron Ford

59¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Aaron Darnell Ford is an American lawyer and politician currently serving as the 34th attorney general of Nevada since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as a member of the Nevada Senate representing the 11th district from 2013 to 2018.

Source: Aaron Ford (Nevada politician)
59¢
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) · 59¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Joe Lombardo (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Joe Lombardo +1.1. Kalshi Aaron Ford 56¢ (mid). Polymarket Aaron Ford 59¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 18.1 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+3.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.4.

Poll average leader is Joe Lombardo (R) (+1.1). Polymarket prices Aaron Ford (D) at 58¢.

Polling average

  • Joe Lombardo (R)43.8%
  • Aaron Ford (D)42.7%

mean of 4 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 19, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiAaron Ford 56¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 251 hours
PolymarketAaron Ford 59¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 686 hours
KalshiJoe Lombardo 45¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
PolymarketJoe Lombardo 42¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
Marker Oct 13, 8:00 AM EDT · Global Strategy Group (D) field ended
Marker Sep 26, 8:00 AM EDT · Noble Predictive Insights field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live

Nevada Governor · ShowdownWire