Louisiana Senate

Bill Cassidy (R) · lost renomination · Cook PVI R+11 · last result 59.32% R

Safe RShare card

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Democratic

Jamie Davis

8¢

Polymarket price

Republican

Julia Letlow

93¢

Polymarket price

Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) · 93¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Bill Cassidy (R) is the incumbent, lost renomination. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Julia Letlow 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Julia Letlow 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+22.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+18.6.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Likely R
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Julia Letlow93¢mid · spread 1¢
Jamie Davis7¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Julia Letlow (R)93¢mid · spread 1¢
Jamie Davis (D)8¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiJulia Letlow 93¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 73 hours

PolymarketJulia Letlow 93¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 683 hours

KalshiJamie Davis 7¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketJamie Davis 8¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Louisiana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Louisiana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Louisiana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Louisiana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live