Florida Senate special 2026
Ashley Moody (R) · running · Cook PVI R+5 · last result Appointed (2025)
Ashley Moody
Wikipedia bio
Ashley Brooke Moody is an American politician and attorney serving since 2025 as the junior United States senator from Florida. A member of the Republican Party, she served from 2019 to 2025 as the 38th Florida attorney general.
Source: Ashley Moody
Angie Nixon
Wikipedia bio
Angela Nixon is an American politician and businesswoman who has served as a member of the Florida House of Representatives since 2020. A member of the Working Families Party and the Democratic Socialists of America, she is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida.
Source: Angie NixonDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Ashley Moody (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Ashley Moody +6.5. Kalshi Ashley Moody 92¢ (mid). Polymarket Ashley Moody 91¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 75.0 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4. VINDMAN, ALEXANDER leads the stored FEC receipts at $20,487,916.
Polling average
- Ashley Moody (R)49.5%
- Angie Nixon (D)43%
mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- 270toWinMoody +5.2% · updated October 2, 2026
- Decision Desk HQMoody +7.1% · updated October 18, 2026
- FiftyPlusOneMoody +6.4% · updated October 18, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsMoody +7.3% · updated October 19, 2026
- Silver BulletinMoody +6.5% · updated October 19, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
- Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Likely R
- Decision Desk HQOct 19, 2026Likely R
- RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Lean R
- Silver BulletinOct 19, 2026Likely R
- FiftyPlusOneOct 19, 2026Likely R
- The EconomistOct 19, 2026Likely R
- Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
- Split TicketOct 19, 2026Likely R
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Ashley Moody92¢mid · spread 0¢
- Angie Nixon9¢mid · spread 1¢
- Ashley Moody (R)91¢mid · spread 1¢
- Angie Nixon (D)9¢mid · spread 2¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
- VINDMAN, ALEXANDERDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $20,487,916 · cash $4,117,609Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- WEIL, JOSHUA JOSEPHDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $15,933,478 · cash $0Through 2025-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- MOODY, ASHLEYREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $13,338,185 · cash $2,820,080Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- NIXON, ANGELADEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $8,177,944 · cash $4,113,083Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
Recent polls
- Univision / YouGovOctober 2–15, 2026825 (RV) ± 4.0%Ashley Moody 51 · Angie Nixon 42
- ActiVoteSeptember 27 – October 15, 2026400 (LV) ± 4.9%Ashley Moody 53 · Angie Nixon 47
- MDW CommunicationsOctober 4–10, 20262,351 (LV) ± 2.8%Ashley Moody 48 · Angie Nixon 42
- Stetson UniversityOctober 1–9, 2026716 (LV) ± 4.2%Ashley Moody 52 · Angie Nixon 41
- St. Pete PollsOctober 5–7, 2026836 (LV) ± 3.4%Ashley Moody 47 · Angie Nixon 45
- YouGovSeptember 28 – October 5, 20263,813 (LV) ± 2.7%Ashley Moody 49 · Angie Nixon 44
Table via Wikipedia.
What changed
- marketFlorida Senate special: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketFlorida Senate special: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketFlorida Senate special: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketFlorida Senate special: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Results
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.
· snapshot Oct 20, 11:10 AM EDT · mode live