ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

New Hampshire Governor 2026

Kelly Ayotte (R) · running · Cook PVI D+2 · last result 53.64% R

Likely RShare card
Kelly Ayotte
Public domain · Staff Sgt. David Marquis
R

Kelly Ayotte

94¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Kelly Ann Ayotte is an American attorney and politician serving since 2025 as the 83rd governor of New Hampshire. A member of the Republican Party, she served from 2011 to 2017 as a United States senator from New Hampshire and from 2004 to 2009 as the 27th attorney general of New Hampshire.

Source: Kelly Ayotte
VS
D

Cinde Warmington

5¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Cinde Warmington is an American attorney, politician, and former lobbyist. As a Democrat, she served as a member of the Executive Council of New Hampshire from 2021 to 2025.

Source: Cinde Warmington
94¢
Polymarket · Kelly Ayotte (R) · 94¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Kelly Ayotte (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Kelly Ayotte +10.5. Kalshi Kelly Ayotte 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Kelly Ayotte 94¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 78.1 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.3. Ticker year is 28. Rules say the 2026 election.

Polling average

  • Kelly Ayotte (R)51.1%
  • Cinde Warmington (D)40.6%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 17, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

Ticker year is 28. Rules say the 2026 election.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:18 AM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:18 AM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiKelly Ayotte 94¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 62 hours
PolymarketKelly Ayotte 94¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 696 hours
KalshiCinde Warmington 6¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
PolymarketCinde Warmington 5¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 AM EDT · National Public Affairs (R) field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 AM EDT · YouGov field ended
Marker Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT · Saint Anselm College field ended
Marker Sep 21, 8:00 AM EDT · University of New Hampshire field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: New Hampshire election office ↗

· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live

2026 New Hampshire Governor Race: Polls, Ratings & Odds | ShowdownWire