ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

New Hampshire Senate 2026

Jeanne Shaheen (D) · retiring · Cook PVI D+2 · last result 56.64% D

Likely DShare card
VS
89¢
Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) · 89¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Jeanne Shaheen (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Chris Pappas +6.7. Kalshi Chris Pappas 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Chris Pappas 89¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 70.3 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.3. PAPPAS, CHRIS leads the stored FEC receipts at $21,500,073.

Polling average

  • Chris Pappas49.6%
  • John E. Sununu42.9%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of September 27, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiChris Pappas 90¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 288 hours
PolymarketChris Pappas 89¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 680 hours
KalshiJohn E. Sununu 10¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
PolymarketJohn E. Sununu 12¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 AM EDT · National Public Affairs (R) field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 AM EDT · YouGov field ended
Marker Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT · Saint Anselm College field ended
Marker Sep 27, 8:00 AM EDT · Trafalgar Group (R) field ended
Marker Sep 22, 8:00 AM EDT · New York Times / Siena University field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026
Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 19, 2026
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

  • PAPPAS, CHRIS
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $21,500,073 · cash $3,283,894
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • SUNUNU, JOHN E
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $5,334,886 · cash $2,502,640
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • BROWN, SCOTT P.
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $2,255,700 · cash $356,497
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • MANZUR, KARISHMA
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $558,788 · cash $19,030
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: New Hampshire election office ↗

· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live

2026 New Hampshire Senate Race: Polls, Ratings & Odds | ShowdownWire