Maine 2

Jared Golden (D) · retiring · Cook PVI R+4 · last result 50.3% D

Jared Golden

Wikipedia bio

Jared Forrest Golden is an American politician and Marine Corps veteran serving as the U.S. representative for Maine's 2nd congressional district since 2019. A Democrat, he represents a district encompassing the northern four-fifths of the state, including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor, and Auburn, along with the state capital of Augusta.

Source: Jared Golden

Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) · 61¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Jared Golden (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Paul LePage 63¢ (mid). Polymarket Paul LePage 61¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this district was R+9.0. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.9.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean R (flip)
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean R (flip)
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Lean R (flip)
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Tossup
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Tossup
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean R (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean R (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Paul LePage63¢mid · spread 1¢
Matt Dunlap38¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Paul LePage (R)61¢mid · spread 2¢
Matthew Dunlap (D)39¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiPaul LePage 63¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 87 hours

PolymarketPaul LePage 61¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiMatt Dunlap 38¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketMatthew Dunlap 39¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · mode live