Montana 1

Ryan Zinke (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+5 · last result 52.3% R

Ryan Zinke

Polymarket · Aaron Flint (R) · 66¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Ryan Zinke (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Aaron Flint 67¢ (mid). Polymarket Aaron Flint 66¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+19.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+16.4.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Lean R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Tossup
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Tossup
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Tossup
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Aaron Flint67¢mid · spread 1¢
Sam Forstag33¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Aaron Flint (R)66¢mid · spread 1¢
Sam Forstag (D)35¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiAaron Flint 67¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 127 hours

PolymarketAaron Flint 66¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 686 hours

KalshiSam Forstag 33¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketSam Forstag 35¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live