Montana Senate

Steve Daines (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+10 · last result 55.01% R

Republican

Kurt Alme

92¢

Wikipedia bio

Kurt Gordon Alme is an American attorney who served from March 2025 to March 2026 as the United States attorney for the District of Montana. He resigned to run in the 2026 United States Senate election in Montana.

Source: Kurt Alme

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Libertarian

Kyle Austin

Democratic

Alani Bankhead

Independent

Seth Bodnar

Wikipedia bio

Seth Andrew Bodnar is an American academic administrator, U.S. Army veteran, and business executive who was the 19th president of the University of Montana. He is a graduate of West Point and was a Rhodes Scholar with master's degrees from Hertford College, Oxford.

Source: Seth Bodnar

Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) · 92¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Steve Daines (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kurt Alme 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Kurt Alme 92¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+19.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+16.4.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Likely R
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Likely R
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Safe R
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Kurt Alme90¢mid · spread 0¢
Seth Bodnar10¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Kurt Alme (R)92¢mid · spread 1¢
Independent8¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiKurt Alme 90¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 157 hours

PolymarketKurt Alme 92¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours

KalshiSeth Bodnar 10¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketIndependent 8¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Montana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Montana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Montana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Montana Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live