Florida 26

Mario Díaz-Balart (R) · Cook PVI R+7 · last result 70.9% R

Mario Díaz-Balart

90¢

Wikipedia bio

Mario Rafael Díaz-Balart y Caballero is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 26th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, he was elected in 2002, and his district includes much of northwestern Miami-Dade County, including Hialeah, and much of the northern portion of the Everglades.

Source: Mario Díaz-Balart

Polymarket · Mario Díaz-Balart (R) · 90¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mario Díaz-Balart (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Mario Díaz-Balart 90¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Mario Díaz-Balart (R)90¢mid · spread 2¢
Nicole Locklin (D)9¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

PolymarketMario Díaz-Balart 90¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours

PolymarketNicole Locklin 10¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live