ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Florida Governor

Ron DeSantis (R) · term-limited · Cook PVI R+5 · last result 59.37% R

Lean RShare card
Byron Donalds
Public domain · United States Congress
R

Byron Donalds

81¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Byron Lowell Donalds is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021.

Source: Byron Donalds
VS
David Jolly
Public domain · http://memberguide.gpo.gov/113/RP/Jolly
D

David Jolly

20¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

David Wilson Jolly (born October 31, 1972) is an American lawyer and politician who is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. Jolly served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican.

Source: David Jolly
81¢
Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) · 81¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Ron DeSantis (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Byron Donalds +4.5. Kalshi Byron Donalds 80¢ (mid). Polymarket Byron Donalds 81¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 56.5 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4.

Polling average

  • Byron Donalds (R)47.7%
  • David Jolly (D)43.2%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of September 28, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiByron Donalds 80¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 560 hours
PolymarketByron Donalds 81¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours
KalshiDavid Jolly 20¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
PolymarketDavid Jolly 20¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
Marker Oct 15, 8:00 AM EDT · Univision / YouGov field ended
Marker Oct 11, 8:00 AM EDT · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) field ended
Marker Oct 10, 8:00 AM EDT · Change Research (D) field ended
Marker Oct 10, 8:00 AM EDT · MDW Communications field ended
Marker Oct 9, 8:00 AM EDT · Stetson University field ended
Marker Oct 7, 8:00 AM EDT · St. Pete Polls field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live

Florida Governor · ShowdownWire