Alaska Senate 2026
Dan S. Sullivan (R) · running · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 53.90% R
Dan S. Sullivan
Wikipedia bio
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician, attorney, and Marine Corps veteran serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska, a seat he has held since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2010 to 2013 as commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and from 2009 to 2010 as Alaska Attorney General.
Source: Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator)
Mary Peltola
Wikipedia bio
Mary Sattler Peltola is an American politician and former tribal judge who served as the U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025.
Source: Mary PeltolaDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Dan S. Sullivan (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Mary Peltola +2.6. Kalshi Democratic party 75¢ (mid). Polymarket Mary Peltola 74¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 45.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+10.1. PELTOLA, MARY leads the stored FEC receipts at $32,623,722.
Polling average
- Dan S. Sullivan (R)46.1%
- Mary Peltola (D)48.7%
mean of 4 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- Decision Desk HQPeltola +2.4% · updated October 12, 2026
- FiftyPlusOnePeltola +2.8% · updated October 11, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsPeltola +2.5% · updated October 12, 2026
- Silver BulletinPeltola +2.8% · updated October 8, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Tossup
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Lean D (flip)
- Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Tossup
- Decision Desk HQOct 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
- RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Tossup
- Silver BulletinOct 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
- FiftyPlusOneOct 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
- The EconomistOct 19, 2026Tossup
- Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Tossup
- Split TicketOct 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Democratic party75¢mid · spread 1¢
- Republican party26¢mid · spread 1¢
- Mary Peltola74¢mid · spread 1¢
- Sen. Dan Sullivan26¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
- PELTOLA, MARYDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $32,623,722 · cash $3,159,817Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- SULLIVAN, DANREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $13,760,055 · cash $5,103,717Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- SULLIVAN, DANIEL JREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $30,231 · cash $3,477Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- DIENER, ANNDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $0 · cash $0Through — · carried from the previous snapshot
Recent polls
- Public Policy Polling (D)October 14–15, 2026578 (RV) –Dan S. Sullivan 47 · Mary Peltola 48
- InsiderAdvantage (R)October 9–10, 20261,200 (LV) ± 2.8%Dan S. Sullivan 43 · Mary Peltola 48 · Dan J. Sullivan 2 · Gerald Heikes 2
- Alaska Survey ResearchOctober 1–3, 20261,512 (LV) ± 3.0%Dan S. Sullivan 45 · Mary Peltola 47 · Dan J. Sullivan 5 · Gerald Heikes 3
- New York Times / Siena UniversitySeptember 24 – October 1, 2026504 (LV) ± 5.1%Dan S. Sullivan 43 · Mary Peltola 50
- Quantus Insights (R)September 28–30, 2026758 (LV) ± 4.0%Dan S. Sullivan 46 · Mary Peltola 46 · Dan J. Sullivan 2 · Gerald Heikes 1
- Quantus Insights (R)September 28–30, 2026758 (LV) ± 4.0%Dan S. Sullivan 47 · Mary Peltola 47 · Dan J. Sullivan 2 · Gerald Heikes 2
Table via Wikipedia.
Latest news
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.
· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live