ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Kansas Senate

Roger Marshall (R) · running · Cook PVI R+8 · last result 53.22% R

Toss-upShare card
Roger Marshall
Public domain · U.S. Senate Photographic Studio
R

Roger Marshall

63¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Roger Wayne Marshall (born August 9, 1960) is an American politician, physician, and former military officer serving as the junior United States senator from Kansas since 2021. A member of the Republican Party, he was the U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district from 2017 until 2021.

Source: Roger Marshall
VS
Adam Hamilton
CC BY 4.0 · Working Preacher
D

Adam Hamilton

38¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Adam Joseph Hamilton is an American Christian theologian, minister, and author. He is the senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, based in the Greater Kansas City area.

Source: Adam Hamilton (pastor)
63¢
Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) · 63¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Roger Marshall (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Adam Hamilton +0.6. Kalshi Roger Marshall 64¢ (mid). Polymarket Roger Marshall 63¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 25.6 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+16.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+14.6. HAMILTON, ADAM leads the stored FEC receipts at $13,533,711.

Poll average leader is Adam Hamilton (D) (+0.6). Polymarket prices Roger Marshall (R) at 62¢.

Polling average

  • Roger Marshall (R)45.7%
  • Adam Hamilton (D)46.3%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 11, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiRoger Marshall 64¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 531 hours
PolymarketRoger Marshall 63¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours
KalshiAdam Hamilton 38¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
PolymarketAdam Hamilton 38¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · InsiderAdvantage (R) field ended
Marker Oct 10, 8:00 AM EDT · InsiderAdvantage (R) field ended
Marker Oct 4, 8:00 AM EDT · GBAO (D) field ended
Marker Oct 4, 8:00 AM EDT · YouGov field ended
Marker Sep 30, 8:00 AM EDT · New York Times / Siena University field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026
Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

  • HAMILTON, ADAM
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $13,533,711 · cash $3,183,400
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • MARSHALL, ROGER W
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $7,006,240 · cash $922,088
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • SPIDEL NEUMANN, SANDY
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $411,754 · cash $26,683
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • SCHMIDT, PATRICK
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $256,046 · cash $0
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live

Kansas Senate · ShowdownWire