Iowa Senate 2026
Joni Ernst (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 51.74% R
Ashley Hinson
Wikipedia bio
Ashley Elizabeth Hinson is an American politician, and former broadcast journalist, serving as the U.S. representative for Iowa's 2nd congressional district since 2021.
Source: Ashley Hinson
Josh Turek
Wikipedia bio
Joshua Peter Turek is an American politician and wheelchair basketball player serving as a member of the Iowa House of Representatives from the 20th district. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa.
Source: Josh TurekDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Joni Ernst (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Josh Turek +0.5. Kalshi Ashley Hinson 57¢ (mid). Polymarket Ashley Hinson 59¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 16.5 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.2. TUREK, JOSHUA leads the stored FEC receipts at $20,152,882.
Poll average leader is Josh Turek (D) (+0.5). Polymarket prices Ashley Hinson (R) at 58¢.
Polling average
- Ashley Hinson (R)46.2%
- Josh Turek (D)46.7%
mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- 270toWinTurek +1.6% · updated October 3, 2026
- Decision Desk HQHinson +0.4% · updated October 19, 2026
- FiftyPlusOneTurek +0.4% · updated October 19, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsHinson +0.1% · updated October 19, 2026
- Silver BulletinTurek +1.0% · updated October 19, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Tossup
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Tossup
- Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Tilt R
- Decision Desk HQOct 19, 2026Tossup
- RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Tossup
- Silver BulletinOct 19, 2026Tossup
- FiftyPlusOneOct 19, 2026Tossup
- The EconomistOct 19, 2026Lean R
- Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Tossup
- Split TicketOct 19, 2026Tossup
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Ashley Hinson57¢mid · spread 1¢
- Josh Turek44¢mid · spread 1¢
- Ashley Hinson (R)59¢mid · spread 1¢
- Josh Turek (D)43¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
- TUREK, JOSHUADEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $20,152,882 · cash $3,607,093Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSONREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $13,472,386 · cash $6,924,989Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- SAGE, NATHANDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $1,433,544 · cash $9Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- CARLIN, JAMESREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $494,420 · cash $5,266Through 2026-06-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
Recent polls
- co/efficient (R)October 15–19, 2026863 (LV) ± 3.3%Ashley Hinson 48 · Josh Turek 45
- Trafalgar Group (R)October 13–15, 20261,094 (LV) ± 2.9%Ashley Hinson 46 · Josh Turek 44
- NPA PollingOctober 8–12, 2026678 (LV) ± 3.8%Ashley Hinson 47 · Josh Turek 44
- NPA PollingOctober 8–12, 2026678 (LV) ± 3.8%Ashley Hinson 48 · Josh Turek 47
- YouGovOctober 6–12, 20262,245 (LV) ± 3.1%Ashley Hinson 46 · Josh Turek 47
- Marist UniversityOctober 8–11, 2026TBA (LV) ± 6.6%Ashley Hinson 45 · Josh Turek 48
Table via Wikipedia.
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.
· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live