ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Alaska Governor

Mike Dunleavy (R) · term-limited · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 50.29% R

Lean DShare card
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
CC BY-SA 4.0 · Unknown authorUnknown author
D

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

79¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins, also known as JKT, is an American politician who was a member of the Alaska House of Representatives from 2013 to 2023.

Source: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
VS
Dave Bronson
CC BY 2.0 · The Alaska Landmine from Anchorage, USA
R

Dave Bronson

Wikipedia bio

David Bronson is an American politician, pilot, and retired National Guard officer. A Republican, he was the 37th mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, from 2021 until 2024.

Source: Dave Bronson
R

Treg Taylor

Wikipedia bio

Tregarrick R. "Treg" Taylor is an American lawyer who was the Alaska attorney general from 2021 to 2025.

Source: Treg Taylor
79¢
Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins · 79¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mike Dunleavy (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins +20.8. Kalshi Democratic party 80¢ (mid). Polymarket Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 79¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 36.3 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+10.1. Candidate contracts on KXGOVAK-26 are a fragmented field, mostly under 1¢. The party contract is the priced market.

Where a poll is published only as ranked-choice rounds, the first-preference row is kept (the ballot row when Wikipedia marks one, otherwise round 1). Later rounds reallocate ballots and are not separate polls.

Polling average

  • Bernadette Wilson (R)22.2%
  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)43%
  • Dave Bronson (R)13.6%
  • Treg Taylor (R)7.8%

mean of 5 most recent individual polls (no aggregator table on the Wikipedia general-election section). Equal-weighted. Not a model.

Polling averagetime not stored

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

Candidate contracts on KXGOVAK-26 are a fragmented field, mostly under 1¢. The party contract is the priced market.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiDemocratic party 80¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 49 hours
PolymarketJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 79¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 678 hours
KalshiRepublican party 21¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
PolymarketBernadette Wilson 22¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
Marker Sep 27, 8:00 AM EDT · Cygnal (R) field ended
Marker Oct 3, 8:00 AM EDT · Alaska Survey Research field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live

Alaska Governor · ShowdownWire