Alaska at-large

Nick Begich III (R) · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 51.3% R

Nick Begich III

Wikipedia bio

Nicholas Joseph Begich III is an American politician and businessman who has served as the U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he had previously run for the seat in the 2022 special and regular elections before his election in 2024.

Source: Nick Begich III

Polymarket · Republican Party · 86¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Nick Begich III (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Nick Begich III 87¢ (mid). Polymarket Republican Party 86¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+10.1.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean R
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean R
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Nick Begich III87¢mid · spread 1¢
Bill Hill13¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Republican Party86¢mid · spread 1¢
Bill Hill14¢mid · spread 1¢
Democratic Party1¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiRepublican party 86¢ at Oct 17, 11:00 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 27 hours

PolymarketRepublican Party 86¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiNick Begich III 87¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

KalshiBill Hill 13¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketBill Hill 14¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Alaska at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Alaska at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Alaska at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Alaska at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Alaska at-large: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · mode live