Kansas 2

Derek Schmidt (R) · Cook PVI R+10 · last result 57.1% R

Derek Schmidt

87¢

Wikipedia bio

Derek Larkin Schmidt is an American lawyer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Kansas's 2nd congressional district since 2025. He previously served as the Kansas Attorney General from 2011 to 2023.

Source: Derek Schmidt

Polymarket · Derek Schmidt (R) · 87¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Derek Schmidt (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Derek Schmidt 87¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+16.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+14.6.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:37 PM EDT

Derek Schmidt (R)87¢mid · spread 1¢
Don Coover (D)13¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 9:00 PM EDT

PolymarketDerek Schmidt 87¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours

PolymarketDon Coover 13¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live