ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

North Carolina Senate

Thom Tillis (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+1 · last result 48.69% R

Likely DShare card
Michael Whatley
CC BY-SA 4.0 · Gage Skidmore
R

Michael Whatley

4¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Michael David Whatley is an American politician and lawyer who was chair of the Republican National Committee from 2024 to 2025. He previously served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party from 2019 to 2024.

Source: Michael Whatley
VS
Roy Cooper
CC BY-SA 4.0 · NetwonsBucket
D

Roy Cooper

96¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Roy Asberry Cooper III is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 75th governor of North Carolina from 2017 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the 50th attorney general of North Carolina from 2001 to 2017 and in the North Carolina General Assembly from 1987 to 2001.

Source: Roy Cooper
96¢
Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) · 96¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Thom Tillis (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Roy Cooper +9.7. Kalshi Roy Cooper 96¢ (mid). Polymarket Roy Cooper 96¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 82.8 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+3.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+1.3. COOPER, ROY leads the stored FEC receipts at $47,190,466.

Polling average

  • Michael Whatley (R)40.9%
  • Roy Cooper (D)50.6%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of September 30, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiRoy Cooper 96¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 278 hours
PolymarketRoy Cooper 96¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours
KalshiMichael Whatley 4¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
PolymarketMichael Whatley 4¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
Marker Oct 11, 8:00 AM EDT · SurveyUSA field ended
Marker Oct 10, 8:00 AM EDT · Trafalgar Group (R) field ended
Marker Oct 7, 8:00 AM EDT · Change Research (D) field ended
Marker Oct 3, 8:00 AM EDT · East Carolina University field ended
Marker Sep 29, 8:00 AM EDT · Big Data Poll field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026
Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

  • COOPER, ROY
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $47,190,466 · cash $12,477,395
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • WHATLEY, MICHAEL
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $13,415,721 · cash $916,102
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • NICKEL, WILEY
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $2,972,089 · cash $0
    Through 2026-03-20 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • BROWN, DON
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $224,689 · cash $0
    Through 2026-04-13 · carried from the previous snapshot

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live

North Carolina Senate · ShowdownWire