ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Minnesota Senate

Tina Smith (D) · retiring · Cook PVI D+3 · last result 48.74% D

Lean DShare card
Peggy Flanagan
CC BY-SA 4.0 · Travellers & Tinkers
D

Peggy Flanagan

87¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Margaret Ann Hartmann Flanagan is an American politician and Ojibwe activist serving since 2019 as the 50th lieutenant governor of Minnesota. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), Flanagan served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019.

Source: Peggy Flanagan
VS
87¢
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) · 87¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Tina Smith (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Peggy Flanagan +3.3. Kalshi Peggy Flanagan 87¢ (mid). Polymarket Peggy Flanagan 87¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 69.7 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+4.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+7.1. CRAIG, ANGIE leads the stored FEC receipts at $13,380,880.

Polling average

  • Peggy Flanagan (DFL)46.4%
  • Michele Tafoya (R)43.1%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of September 30, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiPeggy Flanagan 87¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 396 hours
PolymarketPeggy Flanagan 87¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours
KalshiMichele Tafoya 14¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
PolymarketMichele Tafoya 14¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
Marker Oct 15, 8:00 AM EDT · Trafalgar Group (R) field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 AM EDT · KSTP / SurveyUSA field ended
Marker Oct 7, 8:00 AM EDT · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy field ended
Marker Oct 7, 8:00 AM EDT · Rasmussen Reports (R) field ended
Marker Oct 7, 8:00 AM EDT · Morning Consult field ended
Marker Oct 4, 8:00 AM EDT · GQR (D) field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

  • CRAIG, ANGIE
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $13,380,880 · cash $148,433
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • FLANAGAN, MARGARET
    DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR · raised $10,301,879 · cash $1,543,327
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • TAFOYA, MICHELE
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $9,661,154 · cash $2,134,167
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • SCHWARZE, ADAM
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $1,502,705 · cash $7,717
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live

Minnesota Senate · ShowdownWire