Arizona Governor
Katie Hobbs (D) · running · Cook PVI R+2 · last result 50.32% D
Katie Hobbs
Wikipedia bio
Kathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician and social worker serving since 2023 as the 24th governor of Arizona. A member of the Democratic Party, she served from 2019 to 2023 as Arizona's Secretary of State and from 2011 to 2019 as a member of the Arizona Legislature.
Source: Katie Hobbs
Andy Biggs
Wikipedia bio
Andrew Steven Biggs is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district since 2017.
Source: Andy BiggsDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Katie Hobbs (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Katie Hobbs +8.0. Kalshi Katie Hobbs 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Katie Hobbs 93¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 77.0 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+5.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.3.
Polling average
- Katie Hobbs (D)48.4%
- Andy Biggs (R)40.4%
mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- 270toWinHobbs +8.2% · updated September 25, 2026
- Decision Desk HQHobbs +5.1% · updated October 11, 2026
- FiftyPlusOneHobbs +7.1% · updated October 11, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsHobbs +11.2% · updated October 6, 2026
- Silver BulletinHobbs +8.8% · updated October 11, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Lean D
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Lean D
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt D
- Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Lean D
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Lean D
- Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Likely D
- Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Lean D
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Katie Hobbs90¢mid · spread 0¢
- Andy Biggs11¢mid · spread 1¢
- Katie Hobbs (D)93¢mid · spread 1¢
- Andy Biggs (R)8¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)
Recent polls
- HighGround, Inc.October 6–8, 2026400 (LV) ± 4.9%Katie Hobbs 51 · Andy Biggs 34
- GrayHouse (R)October 6–8, 2026550 (LV) ± 4.2%Katie Hobbs 50 · Andy Biggs 44
- Wick (R)October 3–6, 20261,513 (LV) ± 2.6%Katie Hobbs 49 · Andy Biggs 43
- GQR (D)September 30 – October 5, 2026600 (LV) —Katie Hobbs 49 · Andy Biggs 45
- Equis ResearchSeptember 1–9, 20261,214 (RV) ± 3.2%Katie Hobbs 49 · Andy Biggs 43
- Arizona State UniversityAugust 18 – September 4, 20261,300 (RV) ± 2.7%Katie Hobbs 47 · Andy Biggs 34
Table via Wikipedia.
What changed
- marketArizona Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketArizona Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketArizona Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketArizona Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live