New Mexico Governor
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) · term-limited · Cook PVI D+4 · last result 51.97% D
Deb Haaland
Wikipedia bio
Debra Anne Haaland (born December 2, 1960) is an American politician who served as the 54th United States secretary of the interior from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she served as the U.S. representative for New Mexico's 1st congressional district from 2019 to 2021 and was chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party from 2015 to 2017.
Source: Deb HaalandGregg Hull
Wikipedia bio
Greggory D. Hull is an American politician and businessman who served as mayor of Rio Rancho, New Mexico from 2014 to April 2026, the longest-serving mayor in Rio Rancho history.
Source: Gregg HullDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Deb Haaland +7.9. Kalshi Deb Haaland 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Deb Haaland 94¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 80.7 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.8.
Polling average
- Deb Haaland (D)48%
- Gregg Hull (R)40.1%
mean of 1 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- Silver BulletinHaaland +7.9% · updated October 11, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid D
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe D
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely D
- Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Likely D
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Lean D
- Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid D
- Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid D
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Deb Haaland94¢mid · spread 1¢
- Greggory D. Hull6¢mid · spread 1¢
- Deb Haaland (D)94¢mid · spread 0¢
- Gregg Hull (R)6¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)
Recent polls
- Research & Polling Inc.October 1–9, 20261,125 (LV) ± 2.9%Deb Haaland 49 · Gregg Hull 42
- SurveyUSASeptember 25–30, 2026567 (LV) ± 5.1%Deb Haaland 47 · Gregg Hull 41
- Research & Polling Inc.August 21–28, 2026516 (LV) ± 4.3%Deb Haaland 49 · Gregg Hull 43
- BSP Research (D)July 22 – August 7, 2026800 (RV) ± 3.5%Deb Haaland 41 · Gregg Hull 24
- McLaughlin & Associates (R)July 13–15, 2026400 (LV) ± 4.9%Deb Haaland 46 · Gregg Hull 45
Table via Wikipedia.
What changed
- marketNew Mexico Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketNew Mexico Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketNew Mexico Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketNew Mexico Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketNew Mexico Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live