New Mexico 2

Gabe Vasquez (D) · Cook PVI EVEN · last result 52.1% D

Gabe Vasquez

92¢

Wikipedia bio

Gabriel Vasquez is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served on the Las Cruces City Council from 2017 to 2021.

Source: Gabe Vasquez

Polymarket · Gabe Vasquez (D) · 92¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Gabe Vasquez (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Gabe Vasquez 91¢ (mid). Polymarket Gabe Vasquez 92¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.8.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt D
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Likely D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely D
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 10:34 PM EDT

Gabe Vasquez91¢mid · spread 0¢
Greg Cunningham9¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 10:34 PM EDT

Gabe Vasquez (D)92¢mid · spread 0¢
Greg Cunningham (R)8¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiGabe Vasquez 91¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 37 hours

PolymarketGabe Vasquez 92¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 691 hours

KalshiGreg Cunningham 9¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

PolymarketGreg Cunningham 8¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
New Mexico 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live