New Mexico Senate

Ben Ray Luján (D) · running · Cook PVI D+4 · last result 51.73% D

Democratic

Ben Ray Luján

98¢

Wikipedia bio

Ben Ray Luján is an American politician serving since 2021 as the junior United States senator from New Mexico. From 2009 to 2021, he represented New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives; he served as assistant speaker from 2019 to 2021.

Source: Ben Ray Luján

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Republican

Larry Marker

2¢

Polymarket price

Polymarket · Ben Ray Luján (D) · 98¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Ben Ray Luján (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Ben Ray Luján 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Ben Ray Luján 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+6.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.8.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Likely D
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid D
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Ben Ray Luján97¢mid · spread 0¢
Larry E. Marker2¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Ben Ray Luján (D)98¢mid · spread 1¢
Larry Marker (R)2¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiBen Ray Luján 97¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 22 hours

PolymarketBen Ray Luján 98¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 691 hours

KalshiLarry E. Marker 2¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketLarry Marker 2¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
New Mexico Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New Mexico Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live