Florida 16
Vern Buchanan (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 59.5% R
Vern Buchanan
Wikipedia bio
Vernon Gale Buchanan is an American businessman, politician, and Air Force National Guard veteran serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 16th congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, he first entered Congress in 2007, representing Florida's 13th congressional district until redistricting.
Source: Vern BuchananDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Vern Buchanan (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Sydney Gruters 80¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4.
House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely R
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely R
- Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely R
- Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Likely R
- FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean R
- The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean R
- Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely R
- Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely R
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Sydney Gruters (R)80¢mid · spread 2¢
- Kelly Kirschner (D)19¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live