Michigan 1

Jack Bergman (R) · Cook PVI R+11 · last result 59.2% R

Jack Bergman

88¢

Wikipedia bio

John Warren Bergman is an American politician and retired United States Marine Corps lieutenant general serving as the U.S. representative from Michigan's 1st congressional district since 2017. He is a member of the Republican Party.

Source: Jack Bergman

Polymarket · Jack Bergman (R) · 88¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Jack Bergman (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Jack Bergman 88¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Jack Bergman (R)88¢mid · spread 1¢
Callie Barr (D)11¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

PolymarketJack Bergman 88¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

PolymarketCallie Barr 11¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

El-Sayed: Ohio State owes Vance a refundThe Hill — Campaign ·

What changed

market
Michigan 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live