Michigan 8

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) · Cook PVI R+1 · last result 51.2% D

Kristen McDonald Rivet

95¢

Wikipedia bio

Kristen Lee McDonald Rivet is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served in the Michigan Senate for the 35th district, where she was the assistant majority floor leader from 2023 to 2025.

Source: Kristen McDonald Rivet

Polymarket · Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) · 95¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kristen McDonald Rivet 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Kristen McDonald Rivet 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely D
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Kristen McDonald Rivet94¢mid · spread 2¢
Thomas J. Smith5¢mid · spread 2¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)95¢mid · spread 1¢
Thomas Smith (R)5¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiKristen McDonald Rivet 94¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 22 hours

PolymarketKristen McDonald Rivet 95¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 686 hours

KalshiThomas J. Smith 5¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketThomas Smith 5¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

El-Sayed: Ohio State owes Vance a refundThe Hill — Campaign ·

What changed

market
Michigan 8: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 8: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 8: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 8: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Michigan 8: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live