Michigan Senate
Gary Peters (D) · retiring · Cook PVI EVEN · last result 49.90% D
Abdul El-Sayed
Wikipedia bio
Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed is an American epidemiologist and politician who is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan.
Source: Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
Wikipedia bio
Michael J. Rogers (born June 2, 1963) is an American politician and former FBI agent who served from 2001 to 2015 as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district.
Source: Mike Rogers (Michigan politician)Desk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Gary Peters (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Abdul El-Sayed +3.1. Kalshi Abdul El-Sayed 69¢ (mid). Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed 70¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 35.9 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8. EL-SAYED, ABDUL leads the stored FEC receipts at $45,175,567.
Polling average
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)48.1%
- Mike Rogers (R)45%
mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- 270toWinEl-Sayed +4.0% · updated October 5, 2026
- Decision Desk HQEl-Sayed +2.2% · updated October 16, 2026
- FiftyPlusOneEl-Sayed +3.3% · updated October 16, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsEl-Sayed +2.6% · updated October 16, 2026
- Silver BulletinEl-Sayed +3.4% · updated October 16, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Tossup
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Lean D
- Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Tilt D
- Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Lean D
- RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Tossup
- Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Likely D
- FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Lean D
- The EconomistOct 15, 2026Lean D
- Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Tossup
- Split TicketOct 18, 2026Lean D
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Abdul El-Sayed69¢mid · spread 1¢
- Mike Rogers32¢mid · spread 1¢
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)70¢mid · spread 1¢
- Mike Rogers (R)31¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
- EL-SAYED, ABDULDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $45,175,567 · cash $3,792,203Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- ROGERS, MICHAEL JREPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $20,565,706 · cash $6,527,471Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- STEVENS, HALEYDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $13,304,162 · cash $152,338Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
- MCMORROW, MALLORYDEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $11,405,912 · cash $413,585Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
Recent polls
- Rasmussen Reports (R)October 12–14, 2026798 (LV) ± 3.0%Abdul El-Sayed 46 · Mike Rogers 44
- InsiderAdvantage (R)October 9–10, 20261,200 (LV) ± 2.8%Abdul El-Sayed 48 · Mike Rogers 46
- Wedgewood PollsOctober 8–9, 2026607 (LV) ± 4.0%Abdul El-Sayed 53 · Mike Rogers 47
- The Tyson Group (R)October 6–8, 2026600 (LV) —Abdul El-Sayed 44 · Mike Rogers 46
- Quantus Insights (R)October 5–6, 2026762 (LV) ± 3.9%Abdul El-Sayed 48 · Mike Rogers 47
- Quantus Insights (R)October 5–6, 2026762 (LV) ± 3.9%Abdul El-Sayed 51 · Mike Rogers 49
Table via Wikipedia.
Latest news
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live