Michigan 10

John James (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+3 · last result 51.1% R

John James

Wikipedia bio

John Edward James is an American politician, businessman, and former military officer serving as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district since 2023.

Source: John James (Michigan politician)

Polymarket · Christina Hines (D) · 66¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

John James (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Christina Hines 67¢ (mid). Polymarket Christina Hines 66¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.4. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+2.8.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Tossup
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Tossup
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:36 PM EDT

Christina Hines67¢mid · spread 1¢
Michael Bouchard Jr.34¢mid · spread 3¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:36 PM EDT

Christina Hines (D)66¢mid · spread 1¢
Mike Bouchard (R)35¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 9:00 PM EDT

KalshiChristina Hines 67¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 54 hours

PolymarketChristina Hines 66¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiMichael Bouchard Jr. 34¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

PolymarketMike Bouchard 35¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Marker Oct 19, 7:53 PM EDT · Decision Desk HQ on Michigan house: Tossup → Lean D (flip)

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

What changed

rating
Michigan 10: Decision Desk HQ on Michigan house: Tossup → Lean D (flip)
rating
Michigan 10: Decision Desk HQ on Michigan house: Lean D (flip) → Tossup

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live