Virginia 5
John McGuire (R) · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 57.5% R
John McGuire
Wikipedia bio
John Joseph McGuire III is an American politician, businessman, and former United States Navy SEAL serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 5th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served in the Virginia Senate from 2024 to 2025 and in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2018 to 2024.
Source: John McGuire (Virginia politician)Desk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
John McGuire (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket John McGuire 71¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+5.8. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+10.1.
House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean R
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely R
- Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Lean R
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean R
- Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean R
- FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean R
- The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
- Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean R
- Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely R
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- John McGuire (R)71¢mid · spread 1¢
- Tom Perriello (D)29¢mid · spread 2¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live