Florida 27

María Elvira Salazar (R) · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 60.4% R

María Elvira Salazar

67¢

Wikipedia bio

María Elvira Salazar is an American journalist, author, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 27th congressional district since 2021. She is a Republican assistant whip.

Source: María Elvira Salazar

Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) · 67¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

María Elvira Salazar (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket María Elvira Salazar 67¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+3.4.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Lean R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Tossup
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Likely R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean R
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

María Elvira Salazar (R)67¢mid · spread 1¢
Eliott Rodriguez (D)33¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 9:00 PM EDT

PolymarketMaría Elvira Salazar 67¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

PolymarketEliott Rodriguez 33¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live