Massachusetts Senate 2026

Name: 2026 Massachusetts U.S. Senate election
Start: 2026-11-03
End: 2026-11-03
Location: Massachusetts

Ed Markey (D) · running · Cook PVI D+14 · last result 66.15% D

Safe DShare card

Independent

Shiva Ayyadurai

Wikipedia bio

V. A.

Source: Shiva Ayyadurai

Republican

John Deaton

2¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

John E. Deaton is an American attorney and political candidate.

Source: John Deaton

Democratic

Ed Markey

98¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Edward John Markey is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from the state of Massachusetts, a seat he has held since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, he served 20 terms as the U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 7th congressional district from 1976 to 2013.

Source: Ed Markey

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Socialism and Liberation

Joe Tache

Polymarket · Ed Markey (D) · 98¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Ed Markey (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Ed Markey 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Ed Markey 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+25.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+33.5.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct 19, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinOct 19, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct 19, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct 19, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid D
Split TicketOct 19, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT

Ed Markey98¢mid · spread 0¢
John Deaton2¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT

Ed Markey (D)98¢mid · spread 0¢
John Deaton (R)2¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT

WindowSep 20, 10:00 AM EDT

KalshiEd Markey 98¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 64 hours

PolymarketEd Markey 98¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 695 hours

KalshiJohn Deaton 2¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

PolymarketJohn Deaton 2¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 19, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Massachusetts Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Massachusetts Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Massachusetts Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: Massachusetts election office ↗

Updated Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live