Oregon Senate

Jeff Merkley (D) · running · Cook PVI D+8 · last result 56.91% D

Safe DShare card

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Libertarian

Gary Lyndon Dye

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Progressive

Chris Henry

Democratic

Jeff Merkley

98¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Jeffrey Alan Merkley is an American politician who is the junior United States senator from Oregon. He was first elected to the Senate in 2008.

Source: Jeff Merkley

Republican

David Brock Smith

2¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

David Brock Smith is an American Republican politician currently serving in the Oregon State Senate. He represents the 1st district, which covers all of Curry County and parts of Coos and Douglas counties.

Source: David Brock Smith

Polymarket · Jeff Merkley (D) · 98¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Jeff Merkley (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Jeff Merkley 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Jeff Merkley 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+16.1.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid D
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:29 PM EDT

Jeff Merkley98¢mid · spread 1¢
David Brock Smith2¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:29 PM EDT

Jeff Merkley (D)98¢mid · spread 1¢
David Brock Smith (R)2¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiJeff Merkley 98¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 27 hours

PolymarketJeff Merkley 98¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 683 hours

KalshiDavid Brock Smith 2¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketDavid Brock Smith 2¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Oregon Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oregon Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oregon Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oregon Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live