ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Texas Governor

Greg Abbott (R) · running · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 54.76% R

Lean RShare card
Greg Abbott
Public domain · NASA Johnson Space Center / NASA-JSC/ROBERT MARKOWITZ
R

Greg Abbott

76¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Gregory Wayne Abbott is an American politician, attorney, and jurist serving since 2015 as the 48th governor of Texas. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2002 to 2015 as the 50th attorney general of Texas and from 1996 to 2001 as a justice of the Texas Supreme Court.

Source: Greg Abbott
VS
Gina Hinojosa
Public domain · LBJ Library
D

Gina Hinojosa

24¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Regina Inez Hinojosa is an American lawyer and politician who is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Hinojosa is a member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing the 49th district.

Source: Gina Hinojosa
76¢
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) · 76¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Greg Abbott (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Greg Abbott +2.1. Kalshi Greg Abbott 77¢ (mid). Polymarket Greg Abbott 76¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 49.7 points larger than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+5.6.

Polling average

  • Greg Abbott (R)48.9%
  • Gina Hinojosa (D)46.8%

mean of 5 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 13, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiGreg Abbott 78¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 570 hours
PolymarketGreg Abbott 76¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours
KalshiGina Hinojosa 25¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
PolymarketGina Hinojosa 24¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours
Marker Oct 16, 8:00 AM EDT · CBS News / YouGov field ended
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · University of Houston field ended
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · ActiVote field ended
Marker Oct 11, 8:00 AM EDT · Marist University field ended
Marker Oct 8, 8:00 AM EDT · GBAO (D) field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

Latest news

What changed

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live

Texas Governor · ShowdownWire