South Dakota Governor
Larry Rhoden (R) · running · Cook PVI R+15 · last result 61.98% R
Dan Ahlers
Wikipedia bio
Daniel Paul Ahlers is an American businessman and politician who served in both the South Dakota House of Representatives, from 2006 to 2008 and later from 2017 to 2019, and the South Dakota Senate, from 2008 to 2010. A member of the Democratic Party, Ahler represented the 25th legislative district, which encompasses Dell Rapids and areas north and northeast of Sioux Falls.
Source: Dan Ahlers
Larry Rhoden
Wikipedia bio
Larry Robert Rhoden is an American politician and businessman serving since 2025 as the 34th governor of South Dakota. A member of the Republican Party, Rhoden served from 2019 to 2025 as the 39th Lieutenant Governor of South Dakota and from 2009 to 2015 and again from 2017 until 2019 in the South Dakota Legislature.
Source: Larry RhodenDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Larry Rhoden (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Larry Rhoden 98¢ (mid). Polymarket Larry Rhoden 98¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+26.2.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid R
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe R
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
- Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Safe R
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Solid R
- Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid R
- Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid R
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Larry Rhoden98¢mid · spread 1¢
- Dan Ahlers2¢mid · spread 1¢
- Larry Rhoden (R)98¢mid · spread 1¢
- Dan Ahlers (D)2¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
What changed
- marketSouth Dakota Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketSouth Dakota Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketSouth Dakota Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketSouth Dakota Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketSouth Dakota Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live