Tennessee Governor

Bill Lee (R) · term-limited · Cook PVI R+14 · last result 64.91% R

Safe RShare card

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Misam Abidi

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Santiago Asconape

Republican

Marsha Blackburn

93¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Mary Marsha Blackburn is an American politician and businesswoman serving as the senior United States senator from Tennessee. Blackburn was first elected to the Senate in 2018.

Source: Marsha Blackburn

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Dean Brewer

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Ray Brown

Democratic

Jerri Green

5¢

Polymarket price

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Taylor Hafley

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

David Hatley

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Wendell Jackson

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Charles Van Morgan

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Eddie Lee Murphy

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Lauren Pinkston

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Karl Smithson

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

L. Webb Taylor

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Robert Vick

Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) · 93¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Bill Lee (R) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Marsha Blackburn 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Marsha Blackburn 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+29.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+23.2.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid R
Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

Marsha Blackburn93¢mid · spread 0¢
Jerri Green5¢mid · spread 0¢
David Hatley3¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

Marsha Blackburn (R)93¢mid · spread 0¢
Jerri Green (D)5¢mid · spread 0¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 9:00 PM EDT

KalshiMarsha Blackburn 92¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 127 hours

PolymarketMarsha Blackburn 93¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiJerri Green 5¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

PolymarketJerri Green 5¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 12, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

The Senate map driving Trump’s late-stage travel blitzThe Hill — Campaign ·

What changed

market
Tennessee Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Tennessee Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Tennessee Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Tennessee Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Tennessee Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live