California’s 9th District 2026
No incumbent listed
Desk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
No forecaster rating is stored for this seat. That is not a Safe rating. Kalshi Josh Harder 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Josh Harder 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.
This seat is not in the Wikipedia non-safe ratings table. No rating is assigned here.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Josh Harder95¢mid · spread 3¢
- John McBride4¢mid · spread 3¢
- Josh Harder (D)97¢mid · spread 1¢
- John McBride (R)4¢mid · spread 4¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.
· snapshot Oct 20, 3:40 AM EDT · mode live