California 45
Derek Tran (D) · Cook PVI D+3 · last result 50.1% D
Derek Tran
Wikipedia bio
Derek Truyen Tran is an American lawyer and politician who has served as the U.S. representative from California's 45th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, Tran is the third Vietnamese American to be elected to Congress and the first to represent California.
Source: Derek TranDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Derek Tran (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Derek Tran 93¢ (mid). Polymarket Derek Tran 94¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.
House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely D
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely D
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely D
- Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid D
- Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D
- FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D
- The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D
- Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely D
- Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Derek Tran (D)94¢mid · spread 1¢
- Chuong Vo (R)7¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
What changed
- marketCalifornia 45: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
- marketCalifornia 45: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live