California 22

David Valadao (R) · Cook PVI D+1 · last result 53.4% R

David Valadao

10¢

Wikipedia bio

David Goncalves Valadao is an American politician and former dairy farmer serving as the U.S. representative for California's 22nd congressional district since 2023, previously representing California's 21st congressional district. His district comprises part of the San Joaquin Valley.

Source: David Valadao

Polymarket · Randy Villegas (D) · 92¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

David Valadao (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Randy Villegas 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Randy Villegas 92¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean D (flip)
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tossup
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Likely D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Randy Villegas90¢mid · spread 0¢
David Valadao10¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Randy Villegas (D)92¢mid · spread 1¢
David Valadao (R)10¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiRandy Villegas 90¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 34 hours

PolymarketRandy Villegas 92¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiDavid Valadao 10¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketDavid Valadao 10¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
California 22: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 22: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 22: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 22: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 22: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live