California 6

Kevin Kiley (R) · Cook PVI D+5 · last result 55.5% R

Kevin Kiley

Wikipedia bio

Kevin Patrick Kiley is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 3rd congressional district since 2023. Previously, Kiley represented the 6th district in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2022, and was an unsuccessful candidate to replace California governor Gavin Newsom in the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election.

Source: Kevin Kiley (politician)

Polymarket · Democratic Party · 97¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Kevin Kiley (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Democratic Party 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Solid D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely D (flip)
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Lean D (flip)
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Safe D (flip)
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Solid D (flip)
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Democratic Party97¢mid · spread 0¢
Republican Party2¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

PolymarketDemocratic Party 97¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 684 hours

PolymarketRepublican Party 2¢ at Oct 19, 8:49 PM EDT· hourly pull · 3 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live