California 13

Adam Gray (D) · Cook PVI D+2 · last result 50.0% D

Adam Gray

95¢

Wikipedia bio

Adam Channing Gray is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for California's 13th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served in the California State Assembly from 2012 to 2022, representing the 21st district, which included all of Merced County and portions of Stanislaus County.

Source: Adam Gray

Polymarket · Adam Gray (D) · 95¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Adam Gray (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Adam Gray 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Adam Gray 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt D
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean D
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Adam Gray94¢mid · spread 2¢
Kevin Lincoln5¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Adam Gray (D)95¢mid · spread 2¢
Kevin Lincoln (R)5¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiAdam Gray 94¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 32 hours

PolymarketAdam Gray 95¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours

KalshiKevin Lincoln 5¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketKevin Lincoln 4¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
California 13: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 13: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 13: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 13: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California 13: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live