California Governor

Gavin Newsom (D) · term-limited · Cook PVI D+12 · last result 59.18% D

Safe DShare card

Democratic

Xavier Becerra

96¢

Polymarket price

Republican

Steve Hilton

3¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Stephen Glenn Charles Hilton is a British-born American conservative political commentator, former political adviser, and contributor for the Fox News Channel. He served as director of strategy for British prime minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012.

Source: Steve Hilton

Polymarket · Xavier Becerra · 96¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Gavin Newsom (D) is the incumbent, term-limited. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Xavier Becerra 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Xavier Becerra 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+20.1. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+29.2.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Xavier Becerra97¢mid · spread 0¢
Steve Hilton4¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Xavier Becerra96¢mid · spread 1¢
Steve Hilton3¢mid · spread 0¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiXavier Becerra 97¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 185 hours

PolymarketXavier Becerra 96¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 677 hours

KalshiSteve Hilton 4¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketSteve Hilton 3¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 12, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
California Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
California Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live