Indiana’s 1st District 2026

Name: 2026 U.S. House election, Indiana’s 1st District
Start: 2026-11-03
End: 2026-11-03
Location: Indiana’s 1st District

Frank J. Mrvan (D) · Cook PVI D+1 · last result 53.4% D

Safe DShare card

Frank J. Mrvan

96¢

Polymarket price

Polymarket · Frank Mrvan (D) · 96¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Frank J. Mrvan (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Frank Mrvan 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Frank Mrvan 96¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+19.0. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+16.1.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely D
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely D
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:15 AM EDT

Frank Mrvan97¢mid · spread 2¢
Barb Regnitz2¢mid · spread 2¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:15 AM EDT

Frank Mrvan (D)96¢mid · spread 3¢
Barb Regnitz (R)2¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT

WindowSep 20, 10:00 AM EDT

KalshiFrank Mrvan 97¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 30 hours

PolymarketFrank Mrvan 96¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 678 hours

KalshiBarb Regnitz 2¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

PolymarketBarb Regnitz 2¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Indiana 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Indiana 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Indiana 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Indiana 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Indiana 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: Indiana election office ↗

Updated Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live