Nebraska 2

Don Bacon (R) · retiring · Cook PVI D+3 · last result 50.9% R

Don Bacon

Wikipedia bio

Donald John Bacon is an American politician and retired military officer who has served as the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district since 2017. During his 29 years in the United States Air Force, he commanded wings at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, and Offutt Air Force Base south of Omaha, Nebraska, before retiring as a brigadier general in 2014.

Source: Don Bacon

Polymarket · Denise Powell (D) · 95¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Don Bacon (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Denise Powell 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Denise Powell 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this district was D+4.6. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+20.5.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely D (flip)
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Lean D (flip)
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean D (flip)
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Denise Powell94¢mid · spread 1¢
Brinker Harding7¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Denise Powell (D)95¢mid · spread 1¢
Brinker Harding (R)5¢mid · spread 3¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiDenise Powell 94¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 37 hours

PolymarketDenise Powell 95¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 678 hours

KalshiBrinker Harding 7¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketBrinker Harding 5¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Nebraska 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Nebraska 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Nebraska 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Nebraska 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Nebraska 2: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · mode live