Ohio 15

Mike Carey (R) · Cook PVI R+5 · last result 56.5% R

Mike Carey

72¢

Wikipedia bio

Michael Todd Whitaker Carey is an American politician and former coal lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Carey was first elected in a 2021 special election.

Source: Mike Carey (politician)

Polymarket · Mike Carey (R) · 72¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mike Carey (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Mike Carey 72¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+11.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.0.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Likely R
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely R
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean R
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Likely R
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Tossup
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean R
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean R
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 10:31 PM EDT

Mike Carey (R)72¢mid · spread 2¢
Don Leonard (D)27¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

PolymarketMike Carey 72¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours

PolymarketDon Leonard 27¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live