Ohio 9

Marcy Kaptur (D) · Cook PVI R+5 · last result 48.3% D

Lean DShare card

Marcy Kaptur

72¢

Polymarket price

Polymarket · Marcy Kaptur (D) · 72¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Marcy Kaptur (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Marcy Kaptur 72¢ (mid). Polymarket Marcy Kaptur 72¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+11.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.0.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Tossup
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tossup
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Lean D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Lean D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Marcy Kaptur72¢mid · spread 1¢
Derek Merrin28¢mid · spread 2¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:41 PM EDT

Marcy Kaptur (D)72¢mid · spread 1¢
Derek Merrin (R)27¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiMarcy Kaptur 72¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 80 hours

PolymarketMarcy Kaptur 72¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 680 hours

KalshiDerek Merrin 28¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketDerek Merrin 27¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:38 PM EDT · mode live