Texas 10
Michael McCaul (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+10 · last result 63.6% R
Michael McCaul
Wikipedia bio
Michael Thomas McCaul Sr. is an American politician, attorney, and a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for Texas's 10th congressional district since 2005. A member of the Republican Party, he chaired the House Committee on Homeland Security during the 113th, 114th, and 115th Congresses.
Source: Michael McCaulDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Michael McCaul (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Polymarket Chris Gober 92¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+5.6.
House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.
Polling average
No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Solid R
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Safe R
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid R
- Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely R
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid R
- Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid R
- FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe R
- The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely R
- Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Solid R
- Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe R
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- Chris Gober (R)92¢mid · spread 1¢
- Caitlin Rourk (D)8¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
No FEC snapshot for this race.
Recent polls
No individual polls in this snapshot.
Latest news
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
· snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live